Why the Orbital Environment Is the Infrastructure Problem of the Century
An authoritative assessment of the state of Earth's orbital environment, the forces driving its deterioration, and what failure to act means for every institution that depends on space. More than 43,000 objects larger than 10 centimetres travel through low Earth orbit, alongside an estimated 1.2 million fragments between 1 and 10 centimetres — too small to track, too large to shield against. This paper examines the debris environment across four dimensions: scale and distribution of the threat; the Kessler cascade mechanism and current proximity to irreversibility; the history of catastrophic fragmentation events and their lasting consequences; and the systemic risks for the institutions and economies that depend on orbital infrastructure.
Published by Qontra Research · Orbital Sustainability Research Unit · Policy Research Unit